Sunday, 28 February 2016

Mr Bias and the future of social media


Some days ago one of the most reputed most known Italian contemporary writer, Umberto Eco, passed away. In my view he was very sharp and I like some of his quotes. The one I like most is about books:

“People who don’t read will reach the age of 70 having lived only one life, their own. Those who read will be living 5000 years; they where there, with Adam and Eve in the garden of Eden, they joined when Renzo and Lucia married and where there when Leopardi wrote “the Infinito", as reading brings immortality’.
There is another quote of Umberto Eco (and an interesting comment to it) which keeps me thinking, which I would like to share: 
“Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community. Then they were quickly silenced, but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It’s the invasion of the idiots.” 
Among the many comments to this quote, Dr Jim West  wrote on his blog:
 “… the idiots have the right to speak but they should have no expectation that anyone with sense will listen to them much less take them seriously.  The idiots have as much right to be heard as CNN and the Huffington Post and Fox News and NBC and ABC and CBS and the Discovery Channel and the History Channel.  But like those outlets of infotainment, they have no right to be taken seriously when they speak about matters like theology or history or exegesis or archaeology.
Indeed, the truth is, only idiots heed idiots.  So let them.  Those who wish to know better will seek to know better and those who are satisfied with rank ignorance, stupidity, and misinformation will never care for the truth any more than a person who watches the Naked Archaeologist really cares about the facts.  Their ignorance is invincible.  They should be left to it.  To rot in the swampy stew of their own putrid mindlessness.”
Here my two cents’: I like both comments. Further I believe that one day the social media will collapse and/or implode for the reasons mentioned by Mr. Eco. However I do not share Dr. West’s optimism.
 And that is because of Bias.
 Bias was a politician and legislator of the 6th century BC and was one of the “seven wise men”. Asked several time to write a sentence to be engraved on a temple, Bias refused many times because his quote was “dangerous”. At the end he changed his mind and  provided this sentence:
αʹ οἱ πλειστoι κακoί
“The majority of men is bad”

This sentence is dangerous: if we accept its validity, certain pillars of our western civilization are at risk of  collapse. Democracy, for example. Bias was really a wise man.
Shall we trust democracy? Of course! There is no better system I am aware of.
Shall we always trust the majority? I am not so sure....
Mussolini and Hitler were democratically elected.....
At a closer look we do not always trust the majority of people. In our constitutions we exclude referendums for tax matters because the vast majority would vote to abolish any tax (even if taxes, if properly spent for good purposes like education, roads, health care are the basis of our society).
Even if I hope that Bias is wrong, I do not succeed in trusting the majority of us as able to discern what is good from what is bad in the net. And there is nothing we can do about it. 
As everything which is human, the “invasion of the idiots” as Mr Eco puts it, will come to an end. 

At some point.

Tuesday, 23 February 2016

The five “T”s of risk management



Few years ago I read a brief article issued by an oil company about risk management[1].
I found it so illuminating that I decided to develop my own version of a tool which over the years has proven very effective when dealing with risks, no matter in which context.

Here is my take:
We live in an uncertain universe and it would be foolish to waste time to think how to eliminate “risks”. The most important thing you can do is to manage risks so that the impact could be mitigated in case the “risk” event occurs. It is important to structure your course of action in connection with your appetite for the risk.

How can you do so?
Think of 5 “T”s. in regard to a certain unfortunate event you can decide to
1.     Take the risk
2.     Treat the risk
3.     Transfer the risk
4.     Terminate whatever you are doing
5.     Take a tea (or Take it easy)

Let us use a concrete example to explain the concept. If you happen to live in Naples who is a large city in southern Italy build very, very close to the Volcano Vesuvius, and want to buy a house you know that you are exposing yourself to a certain risk. Vesuvius is a dormant volcano that has been quiet for a while, but some day, as it did in the past, will erupt again causing destruction.
The risk certainly exists and cannot be eliminated. However you can decide to:

1.     Take the risk. You will buy your house and won’t care much about any eruptions.
2.     Treat the risk. Yes you can buy the house but it will be an anti seismic building close to a motorway, allowing you to leave quickly if anything bad happens.
3.     Transfer the risk. You may decide to transfer the effect of an eruption by taking the appropriate insurance (assuming you find one) and indicate as a beneficiary someone living far away, whom you like very much.
4.     Terminate. If your appetite for the risk is low, you may decide to buy your house somewhere else (which will deprive you from the pleasure of living in the second most fascinating and beautiful place on earth[2]).
5.     Take a tea (or Take it easy). When looking at the risks around you, if you are willing to do an intellectually honest job you should consider leaving politics and emotions out of your risk management structuring. Once you make your considerations, the itchier is your issue, the better is to let someone independent, external to revise your ideas.

I used my extensive tool in contract negotiations and when addressing Boards for difficult decisions many times and I was surprised to see how successful, calming and rewarding a structured approach can be.
As a final input: in Chinese the word for "crisis" (危機) is “frequently invoked in Western motivational speaking as being composed of two Chinese characters respectively signifying "danger" and "opportunity"”. (Wikipedia)
Even if this is etymologically incorrect, I still like the idea.  


Should you need advice or support in these matters, please do contact me.



[1] I think it was Shell but unfortunately I can’t find anything on this topic attributable to the reputed oil company.
[2] The most fascinating and beautiful place on earth is obviously Salento, the area I come from......